More signs of shipping rebound

 

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-12-13/ship-industry-seen-by-morgan-stanley-at-start-of-two-year-rally.html

http://cyprus-mail.com/2013/12/17/shipping-sector-will-benefit-from-gas-industry/

http://www.autonews.com/article/20131218/GLOBAL/131219864/u-s-auto-industry-export-growth-good-news-for-shipping-companies#axzz2nqX5u612

All signs are pointing towards a shipping rebound. This has become my most attractive investment idea. I will have to find shipping companies that are:

a) trading at significant discounts to book value

b) profitable, or have a high chance of converting from unprofitable to profitable in the near future

c) Geographically distributed. Unless I can get some kind of edge in determining in which areas the rebound in trade will be most pronounced, I may be best suited to distributing my picks to reduce my downside. For example, I could go with an Asia bias in the shipping portfolio. However, this would leave me with too much exposure to a pop in the Chinese and Hong Kong real estate bubble (which would decrease local shipping for Iron Ore). I would likely have to do hours of research to reduce these kinds of risks in my stock selection.

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