The stock is up huge after a fantastic earnings announcement – a nice 44% gain. The growth in earnings is mainly from the mortgage brokering business, as I predicted here.

The rig count in North Dakota has moderated from a peak in late May, which may mean a moderation in the demand for housing by new workers to the region. However, interest rates are still low, providing impetus for all those who are paying astronomical rents in North Dakota to switch to a purchased house.

I am considering selling half of my position, as there is a chance that the market price drops significantly as the $17 mm takes place during the third quarter, and this may be a local maximum in the stock price. Also, I will probably need a little more powder in the keg.

I expect the general market to decline in late August or early September, which will probably offer a great buying opportunity. If this happens, I need to have some reserves ready to buy my favorite stocks right now.

So the downward momentum has finally broken on this stock.

After the earnings announcement, the overblown negativity will begin to dry up, and the short sellers will start a reflexive process of covering, raising the price, and forcing more short sellers to cover. This should lift the stock price significantly.

I have begun to purchase shares, but I have only purchased a small amount. I am expecting a pullback, because the intial enthusiasm is bound to moderate before the upward momentum resumes. On the other hand, I do not want to miss out on any upside that occurs from the early short covers.

Disclosure: I am long GMCR.