Further Analysis of QE3

I hadn’t considered the effect of QE3 on oil, but inflation in the dollar will be a positive for oil, priced in dollars. American oil companies should benefit.

However, the entry of Russia into the WTO cannot be ignored. It is hard to tell which force will be greater.

Negative bets on U.S. Treasuries have hit an all-time high in the face of QE3. What Bernanke really wished was that Congress would release a stimulus. However, QE3 has, in effect, dampened the ability of Congress to do so. As investors sell treasuries, the interest rates will rise, increasing the load of U.S. debt and making stimulus action more and more expensive.

Admittedly, this effect would not be felt unless it were to continue past the current deleveraging. Deleveraging is causing the deflationary effects we are seeing, and until demand for debt increases, interest rates will not substantially rise.

In the shorter term, the low interest rates will continue to have a positive impact on stocks. This is bad news for my short of SPY. SPY has not approached my stop limit, so I am sitting tight on it, however. If headlines begin to turn more positive on the U.S. market, I may have to reconsider my position.

In my loose prediction of the future, I would guess that stocks will fall in the short term on renewed European concerns. Then we will get a post-election rally, as investors become more certain of the future and the housing rebound takes full swing on the back of QE3. Finally, in the spring, the massive decrease in government spending should cause the markets to fall substantially. I don’t expect Congress to actually decrease spending and let tax cuts expire simultaneously. However, I do expect Congress to put it off until the last minute, and U.S. stocks will not like this.

That is mere speculation, in the loosest sense of the word. Too much time and too many game-changing factors will occur between now and next spring to have a good idea of what will happen, on a macro-level, beyond the next month.

 

Disclosure: I am short SPY.

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