IMAX – Final Note before Earnings

I hate to harp so much on one stock, but I just reviewed the Q2 2011 conference call, and I am even more convinced that we will see a quick pop in the stock after IMAX announces earnings for Q3.

I have already expounded on the reasons for IMAX’s drop YTD – the poor quality of films for the first half of 2011. But I believe that the two biggest contributors to IMAX’s revenue this year will be Transformers and Harry Potter, which both occurred mostly in Q3. Indeed, Rich Gelfond mentioned in the conference call that IMAX had already generated $88mm in revenue in the first 28 days of Q3, as compared to a revenue of $98mm in Q3 2010.

Thus, IMAX is likely to post some pretty impressive year-over-year growth figures next week. This is still a risky trade, because the consensus earnings estimate for this quarter is .18, which suggests that the market already expects a 20% year over year growth figure. But, at its current valuation, I still think, even if IMAX only meets expectations, we are likely to see a pop.

I may buy some more shares in the next week, because I think this might be the last time that shares are this cheap.

 

Disclosure: I own shares of IMAX. I may buy shares in the next 7 days.

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