Greece and Europe

Greece. Wow. What a bad situation. Is there a reflexive process occurring here? The government’s implementation of austerity measures might be further fuelling Greece’s inability to collect revenue. I am reminded of the Laffer Curve – maybe Greece is edging further into the right-hand portion.

Maybe its economy will never recover.
But what will happen? Surely the other European countries will not let Greece default. The fear of the consequences to THEIR economies is too great.
There is only one recourse for the Eurozone. Let the printing presses fly.
Perhaps by printing huge amounts of money, and loaning at low interest rates, contagion spreading from Greece can be avoided. But the situation for Greece itself will be awful for years to come.

If the rating agencies devalue Italy’s debt, or Italy’s creditors themselves get scared and jack up interest rates, Italy could be in danger of a default as well, and also require a bailout. If this occurs, the ripple effects would be enormous. Likely Portugal, and perhaps Ireland, would be next on the list.
No matter what happens, the Euro is going to MASSIVELY devalue over the next several years. The dollar is a possible benefactor, but the obvious benefactors are the currencies of Asia. I am particularly interested in Southeastern Asian countries. Those south of China, with more free currency policies.

I wonder what the impact of the massive influx of Euros will be on the energy industry.
Norway is a strong benefactor here, and perhaps Europe’s most important source of oil (1). I was so impressed by the description of integration of 4D technology in offshore Norway – this technology will become a staple of the industry in the future (2).
While (1) points out that Norway oil exports have hit a peak already, I would argue that the integration of new technologies such as 4D seismic will allow for greater recoveries than had ever been imagined in the past, and that Norway’s fields still have many good producing years ahead.
I did not realize that Denmark was also a significant producer.
I do not imagine demand will be very high in Europe over the next few decades. It will probably remain at current levels – the only impetus for price increase here is the constriction of supply. Further, increasing demand in other parts of the world also constricts supply.



Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in: Logo

You are commenting using your account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s